Modeling the choice on the basis of estimates

Apart from the case of complete passenger information, there always are also decisions which are made on the basis of estimates. The simplest example is the choice between several boarding stops at the start of the journey or at a transfer. If passengers do not have any information on departure times on board, the decision on continuing the journey or getting off, in this case depends on the expected remaining journey time after alighting.

Such decisions can be modeled in two ways:

  • By a discrete choice model
  • By a 0/1 decision in favor of the best alternative

The second case reduces the expected remaining costs, however, does not reflect the fuzziness of the passengers' behavior. That is why a discrete choice model should be favored normally. If the flexibility parameter goes towards infinity, the result comes close to the 0/1 decision in favor of the alternative with the lowest expected remaining costs anyway.